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| “双碳”目标下河北省农业生态效率时空演进特征及影响因素 |
| Characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution of agriculture eco-efficiency and the influencing factors in Hebei Province under the goal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” |
| 投稿时间：2024-03-07 |
| DOI：10.13254/j.jare.2024.0140 |
| 中文关键词: 农业生态效率，全局参比法，超效率SBM模型，参数最优地理探测器，时空演进，河北省 |
| 英文关键词: agriculture eco-efficiency, global reference method, super-SBM model, optimal parameter-based geodetector, spatio-temporal evolution, Hebei Province |
| 基金项目:河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目（SQ2022054） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| “双碳”战略下农业领域将迎来广泛且深刻的系统性变革。河北省农业发展长期处于生态环境和自然资源趋紧局面，研究其农业生态效率空间差异并分析影响因素，可为其他地区提供有益参考。本研究基于 2002—2021年 11个地市面板数据构建评价指标体系，采用非期望产出的全局超效率SBM模型测算农业生态效率水平，通过ArcGIS软件进行时空分布格局可视化呈现与演变趋势分析，并采用参数最优地理探测器识别空间分异主要影响因素及因素间交互作用。结果表明，2002—2021年河北省农业生态效率均呈现阶段性波动上升态势，由2002年的0.63提升至2021年的0.94。各地市效率值曲线演变特征差异性显著，空间格局分异特征明显，东西部差异逐渐缩小，北高南低差异凸显。农民收入水平、农业劳动生产率、农业机械密度、农作物种植结构、城镇化率是影响空间分异的主导因素，各因子解释力及因子交互解释力随时间演进均呈现波动变化趋势。未来应因地制宜探索不同地区农业发展重点，着力消解不均衡发展态势，加快推进农业新质生产力发展，找准与农业生态效率关键影响因素的有效契合点，切实提升农业生态效率。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Under the strategy of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality", the agricultural sector will undergo extensive and profound systemic changes. Agricultural development in Hebei Province has long been in a situation of tight ecological environment and natural resources, and studying the spatial differences in agriculture eco-efficiency and analysis of the influencing factors in this region can be a reference for other regions. An evaluation index system was constructed based on the panel data of 11 city from 2002 to 2021, and the global super-efficiency SBM model with non-expected output was used to measure the level of agriculture eco-efficiency in Hebei Province. Visual presentation of the spatio-temporal distribution pattern and the analysis of the evolution trend were carried out using Arc GIS, and the parametric optimal geodetector was used to identify the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of agriculture eco-efficiency and the main influencing factors as well as the interactions among the factors. From 2002 to 2021, the agriculture eco-efficiency of Hebei Province has shown a rising trend of fluctuation in stages, with the efficiency value increasing from 0.63 in 2002 to 0.94 in 2021. There were significant differences in the evolution of the efficiency curves of cities, and the spatial patterns were markedly different, with the differences between the eastern and western regions gradually narrowing and those between the“high in the north and low in the south” being very prominent. Farmers income level, agricultural labor productivity, agricultural machinery density, crop cultivation structure, and urbanization rate were the dominant factors affecting the spatial differentiation, and the explanatory power of each factor and their interactions showed fluctuating and changing trends over time. In the future, there is a need to explore the priorities for agricultural development in different regions in light of local conditions, and to resolve the imbalance in development between the "high north and low south". At the same time, we are accelerating the development of new productive forces in the agricultural sector, finding an effective match with the key factors affecting agriculture eco-efficiency and improving it. |
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